The DTX project will extend the 78-mile existing Caltrain the last 1.3 miles into the Salesforce Transit Center in downtown San Francisco. While the downtown is no longer the employment center it used to be, Salesforce remains a major nexus of local and regional transit systems which, when Caltrain is extended, will connect 11 passenger rail lines and over 40 bus lines.
2023
A Summary of Climate Summaries
It is generally agreed that the world has been warming and that this has caused the melting of ice and, according to the EPA about 9 inches of sea level rise since 1880. There is also agreement that there is more man-caused greenhouse gas in the atmosphere than there used to be. And that’s about where the agreement ends.
The nature of the climate debate has shifted. There are now at least four ways of looking at the situation.
Caltrain’s Self-Inflicted Dilemma
With its plan both to run diesel and electric trains between Gilroy and San Francisco, Caltrain appears to be facing a major dilemma of its own making. If implemented this ill-conceived plan would both significantly delay the long-awaited level boarding north of San Jose’s Diridon Transfer Station and, by having to continue operating both electrics and diesels, make the Caltrain operation significantly more costly than it otherwise would be.
Caltrain is…and has long been…in the politically difficult position of trying to operate a coherent commuter rail service through three California counties, each with active constituents, often at odds with one another. This is further complicated by the fact that even though Caltrain passes through three Bay Area Counties and is therefore a regional system, there has been little if any regional involvement in resolving the resulting regional problems.
Despite these handicaps it is essential that Caltrain’s actions during the next five years be pursuant to a carefully thought- out, unifying strategy. Unfortunately, there is at this time little evidence that such a strategy exists.
Hydrogen is our Salvation: NOT!
California seems determined to rush into hydrogen-powered cars, trucks, ships, buses, trains, airplanes, you name it. Never mind that today 95% of the country’s supply of hydrogen is made from fossil fuels. And never mind that every kilowatt of green energy (from wind or solar) that is devoted to making hydrogen would be a kilowatt not available to meeting some other energy need.
What about efficiency? Does anyone in Sacramento care? According to Mechanical Engineering Professor David Cebon of Cambridge University, with the thermal energy loss of manufacturing, transporting and consuming the hydrogen thrown in, the average hydrogen-powered vehicle would operate at 30% efficiency, compared to a battery-operated vehicle that operates at 59% efficiency. Even hybrids do better than 30%. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlOCS95Jvjc
Recent BATWG Letter to the SFMTA
August 28, 2023
Dear Director Tumlin,
In this letter we have listed several cost-cutting opportunities, some that you are already seeking to implement and others that do not appear to be under current consideration.
As you know, the financial fortunes of San Francisco, and therefore also of the SF Municipal Transportation Agency (MTA), have changed. From recent MTA reports it is clear that your organization has been struggling to find ways of coping with the new conditions under which you will be required to operate. However, it is unlikely that the financial crisis you face today will be resolved in the manner that fiscal difficulties have been resolved in the past. The MTA staff’s presentation at the MTA Board Workshop on 2.7.2023 included a pie chart showing that 65% of the MTA’s 2023 revenue is expected to come from the CCSF General Fund, and State and federal subventions. This is not reassuring. Given that the huge drops in downtown property values will soon result in corresponding drops in CCSF property and sales tax revenues, it is unlikely that the past level of General Fund subsidy to the MTA will continue. Moreover, given conditions in Sacramento and Washington DC, the hoped for State and federal subventions are by no means assured.
AC Transit: Nowhere to Go but Up
Back in 1985 AC Transit racked up an average of 245,000 unlinked trips (one-way riders) per weekday. By 2000 this average ridership had dropped to 225,000 riders a day. By 2019 the ridership had dropped again, this time to 182,000 riders a day. And then COVID hit. By 2021, the latest year for which the National Transit Database shows data, AC’s average ridership came in at just 65,000 one-way riders per weekday.
The AC Staff and Board of Directors have set out several times to make changes designed to attract more riders to its system. It’s now trying again, with an ambitious plan to respond to rider, and we hope also non-rider, needs.
On July 26, 2023 the Staff and its consultant reported on the status of this latest effort to the AC Board of Directors. It was an effective presentation and included several interesting revelations, followed by some very apt responses from the AC Transit Board.
Bay Area Transportation Working Group 